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In questo modo non solo lo Stato incasserebbe le cedole dei

comprati le sofferenze

Nell della direttiva Brrd (Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive) dell europea, il bail in comporterebbe dei costi per gli investitori, e dunque per i contribuenti italiani, che costituiscono una buona parte di questo gruppo. Pur riconoscendo le difficoltA� di una tale soluzione nell della direttiva Brrd, crediamo tuttavia che l dei crediti in sofferenza da parte del governo italiano sia un da valutare, prosegue l di Pimco secondo cui l potrebbe essere finanziata al tasso d sul debito pubblico e, considerando prezzi correnti e potenziali recuperi, potrebbe anche rivelarsi remunerativa per i contribuenti in un orizzonte di lungo termine:potremmo considerarla una forma d da parte del governo piuttosto che un aiuto di Stato. Pimco,tuttavia, ritienepiA? probabile che l alla fine adotti una soluzione di compromesso compatibilecon la direttiva Brrd.

Quali sono le dimensioni del problema?

Occorre ricordare che le sofferenzeappartengono a una classificazione tutta italiana eindicano i finanziamenti per i quali lasituazione di insolvenza del debitore A? giA� accertata. Come nel caso della massa degli NPL, questa categoria include i prestiti la cui futura riscossione A? improbabile, o che sono attualmente scaduti, ma non si trovano in condizioni tali da essere ritenuti vere e proprie sofferenze. Pur auspicando una maggiore trasparenza riguardo alla performance dei prestiti, si puA?affermare che i prestiti scaduti da piA? di 120 giorni rientrino come minimo nella categoria delle esposizioni deteriorate.

La domanda che si pongono gli investitori, e che determina moltaincertezza sui mercati, A? la seguente: le NPE sono in realtA� NPL? E ancora: l del settore bancario si avvicina di piA? a 87 miliardi di euro (le sofferenze al netto delle garanzie reali sui finanziamenti e delle rettifiche di bilancio) o piuttosto a 197 miliardi di euro (le esposizioni deteriorate al netto di garanzie, rettifiche e accantonamenti)? Mercati e autoritA� di regolamentazione sembrano propensi a far coincidere le due categorie, mentre banche e governi sono di parere opposto. secondo Pimco;i197 piumini moncler saldi miliardi di euro di esposizioni deteriorate nette sono il presupposto piA? idoneo da cui partire. Di questa cifra, il 60% circa A? concentrato in cinque banche (cfr. Figura 1).

Figura 1: esposizioni NPL ed NPE in Italia Fonte: PIMCO, relazioni societarie, Banca d Rapporto sulla stabilitA� finanziaria al 30 giugno 2016

In futuro, moncler saldi A? possibile che la qualitA� dei prestiti si deteriori ulteriormente, ma A? positivo il fatto che la crescita degli NPL abbia registrato un netto rallentamento (cfr. Figura 2), lasciando presagire un ridimensionamento in linea con le medie storiche. Ciononostante, la situazione potrebbe evolvere in maniera diversa se le condizioni macroeconomiche dovessero indebolirsi; per gli investitori la sfida consiste nel capire quale fase del ciclo stiamo attraversando. Se consideriamo i tassi di conversione (la percentuale di prestiti in bonis che diventano prestiti in sofferenza) precedenti alla crisi finanziaria, il quadro delle future esposizioni appare alquanto favorevole; se invece usiamo i tassi recenti, il quadro diventa piA? problematico.

Figura 2: Afflussi netti di NPL lordi (% dei prestiti) Fonte: KBW, report societario, moncler bambino saldi al 30 maggio 2016

Quali sono le implicazioni per il sistema bancario?

Secondo Anderson, le banche italiane piA? deboli dovranno probabilmente raccogliere a breve nuovi capitali, un processo che di per sA� A? giA� avviato. Tuttavia, ipotizzando che la situazione non subisca un particolare deterioramento, l del sistema bancario ai prestiti in sofferenza moncler outlet online uomo appare complessivamente gestibile nel tempo, e questo per tre motivi:

Utili previsti: l pre accantonamenti a livello di sistema si attesta attualmente a circa 30 miliardi di euro l Se il trend fosse confermato, le banche potrebbero azzerare il valore di metA� delle loro esposizioni deteriorate nette correnti, con un recupero anch pari a zero, nell dei prossimi tre anni, con ricadute limitate sui livelli di capitale. Le ipotesi di base riguardanti l tuttavia, non prevedono una significativa recessione e gli utili correnti sono sostenibili. L politico che vuole rendere il sistema a prova di recessione fin da subito implica che moncler saldi outlet in questo momento gli operatori del mercato danno agli utili un minima, se non nulla.

Recupero delle garanzie: i dati non sono facilmente reperibili, tuttavia un rapporto di Moody pubblicato nel 2014 stima un moncler bambino outlet delle perdite pari al 40% sui prestiti in sofferenza garantiti e all su quelli non garantiti. Secondo un rapporto di PwC del giugno 2016, il 53% dei prestiti in sofferenza lordi italiani A? garantito e l delle sofferenze nette sembrerebbe per lo piA? coperto da garanzie collaterali immobiliari. Inoltre, una certa quota dei prestiti dispone di garanzie personali che potrebbero generare un maggiore recupero del collaterale nel corso del tempo. Nonostante sia difficile calcolare accuratamente questa cifra, PwC stima che il 19% delle sofferenze sia costituito da prestiti al dettaglio. Pur nella consapevolezza che i prestiti migliori sono probabilmente cartolarizzati e moncler donna che alcune idiosincrasie italiane potrebbero rendere il recupero piA? difficile rispetto a Paesi come la Spagna e l (ad esempio, il lungo processo di liquidazione in tribunale, che in media puA? durare 6 o 7 anni), queste cifre suggeriscono che moncler outlet serravalle i livelli correnti sono ragionevoli in un di lungo termine.

Il cattivo pagatore italiano: nonostante sia un dato estremamente difficile da quantificare, le nostre ricerche suggeriscono che i default strategici, in cui il mutuatario decide di interrompere temporaneamente i pagamenti pur essendo in grado di adempiervi, siano una prassi diffusa in tutta Italia. Questo si spiega con i tempi necessari per ottenere un pignoramento, che spesso superano i 5 anni. Se i default strategici sono una moncler outlet trebaseleghe prassi diffusa, ciA? significa che le perdite finali in capo alle banche saranno inferiori all implicito nei livelli attuali delle esposizioni deteriorate. Per questo motivo, riteniamo che una maggiore trasparenza riguardo alla portata dei default strategici contribuirebbe notevolmente a migliorare la fiducia del mercato. Inoltre, l di una politica a tolleranza zero nei confronti dei default strategici, unitamente alla riduzione dei tempi di pignoramento, potrebbe concorrere a massimizzare il recupero dei collaterali.

I prezzi correnti di mercato per i moncler outlet online shop crediti in sofferenza sono equi?

Uno dei principali motivi di preoccupazione per gli investitori A? legato alla valutazione delle sofferenze delle esposizioni deteriorate nei bilanci bancari, che si teme sia inadeguata poichA� le banche dovrebbero applicare riduzioni di valore maggiori sulle esposizioni rispetto a quanto stanno effettivamente facendo. A nostro avviso, ciA? A? discutibile. Come giA� precisato, se le esposizioni deteriorate vengono detenute fino alla scadenza, riteniamo che il sistema bancario sia adeguatamente coperto nel suo complesso, considerando collaterali, garanzie e default strategici.

perA? altrettanto vero che, se le sofferenze fossero vendute alle attuali condizioni di mercato, si potrebbe generare una differenza di 10 20 punti percentuali tra il prezzo che gli investitori sono disposti a pagare per acquistare i crediti e le loro valutazioni piA? recenti (ad esempio, una sofferenza https://www.moncleroutlet-i.org attualmente valutata 40 centesimi da una banca frutterebbe 20 30 centesimi se venduta oggi sul mercato). La vendita ai prezzi di mercato di tutti i prestiti in sofferenza presenti nel sistema comporterebbe una riduzione moncler saldi uomo del capitale pari a circa 40 miliardi di euro. PuA? sembrare una cifra consistente, ma corrisponde appena all pre accantonamenti che il sistema genera in poco piA? di anno. Chiariamo, comunque, che si tratta di una cifra complessiva a livello di sistema e ciA? non toglie che le banche piA? deboli debbano probabilmente raccogliere nuovi capitali.

Da cosa dipendono le differenze tra il valore di acquisto e quello contabile?

La differenza tra valore di acquisto (il prezzo che gli acquirenti sono disposti a pagare sul mercato) e valore contabile (il livello a cui le banche detengono attualmente i crediti) A? determinata dai seguenti fattori:

Tassi di finanziamento (sconto): la struttura delle passivitA� di una banca che vende crediti in sofferenza A? probabilmente piA? efficiente di quella del potenziale moncler uomo acquirente. Ad esempio, il costo di finanziamento per le banche, stando ai dati dell A? pari all compresi depositi e obbligazioni al piumini moncler outlet dettaglio. Un potenziale acquirente, come un hedge fund o una societA� di private equity, avrA� difficoltA� a ottenere tassi di finanziamento analoghi. Considerando che i prestiti in sofferenza italiani sono attivi a piA? lunga duration, il divario tra le condizioni di offerta puA? essere significativo. In termini ancor piA? semplici: alle banche il denaro non costa praticamente nulla, dunque al di lA� delle carenze patrimoniali che poi si evidenziano la cessione delle sofferenze consente alle agli istituti di continuare a svolgere il loro core business. Discorso diverso per gli investitori privati che, oltre al costo piA? caro del finanziamento, devono anche garantirsi un rendimento vantaggioso. Di qui la tendenza generale a offrire prezzi bassi per le cartolarizzazioni degli NPL. Ilmeccanismo moncler outlet serravalle pubblico di garanzia sulla cartolarizzazione delle sofferenze (GACS), secondo Pimco, piumini moncler scontatissimi dovrebbe restringere il differenziale denaro lettera di numerosi punti, ma probabilmente non servirA� ad abbassare i costi di finanziamento tanto da giustificare un prezzo di acquisto nettamente piA? elevato per i prestiti in sofferenza.

Ipotesi sul valore degli attivi: le ipotesi riguardanti il valore residuo degli attivi (quanta parte del prestito sarA� da ultimo recuperata) possono differire in misura significativa in base alla tipologia di investitore, date le disparitA� esistenti tra le ipotesi relative alle dinamiche macroeconomiche italiane, alla recuperabilitA� dei collaterali e ai tempi di liquidazione. Questo A? un problema dell sistema bancario italiano (e non solo): i modelli interni di valutazione del credito, osservati dall non sembrano univoci. Di qui le contestazioni che le banche muovono alle ispezioni delle autoritA� di vigilanza che di volta in volta sono chiamati ad approvarli oppure a valutare i portafogli di finanziamenti. L di parametri differenti fa sA� che il prezzo di offerta degli investitori sia basso perchA�, in effetti, chi compra una sofferenza cartolarizzata non A? sicuro al 100% della qualitA� di ciA? che acquista.

Ipotesi di spesa: la maggior parte delle banche contabilizza il costo di servizio/ristrutturazione delle sofferenze quando la spesa si realizza (l livello di prestiti in sofferenza A? uno dei motivi che spiegano perchA� le banche italiane hanno coefficienti di incidenza delle spese piA? elevati). L delle sofferenze perA? attualizza le spese al tasso di sconto dell e anche per questo tenderA� a ricercare un prezzo inferiore. Questa osservazione di Pimco A? una sorta di ritorno al punto 1 ma da un altro punto di vista. La banca mette a bilancio i costi sostenuti per l di smaltimento delle sofferenze (la controparte che emette il bond, il service che si occupa del recupero crediti, eccetera) solo quando questa si A? conclusa. Il compratore, invece, tende a scontare dal prezzo di offerta questi costi impliciti. un po moncler outlet come quando si acquista un o una casa di seconda mano: se le riparazioni o ristrutturazioni sono da fare, l non offre quasi mai quello che chiede il venditore.

Alla luce di tali differenze, le banche italiane dimostrano di comportarsi con raziocinio restando in possesso dei loro crediti in sofferenza. Inoltre, A? importante precisare che la maggior parte degli istituti bancari avrebbe difficoltA� a vendere i propri attivi illiquidi ai livelli attuali, osserva Anderson. Ci mancherebbe altro!Al danno dell di capitale sicuro si aggiungerebbe anche la perdita di un attivo di bilancio a prezzi irrisori.

Cosa si puA? fare per risolvere il problema?

Secondo Pimco ci sono tre opzioni:

Bail in: la direttiva Brrd prevede la ricapitalizzazionepubblica (o sotto l pubblica)delle banche, ma impone che l sia condiviso dagli investitori oppure che le passivitA� in bilancio siano ridotte di valore. Concettualmente, questo approccio ha il vantaggio di ripulire rapidamente il sistema, di facilitare la concessione del credito all nel suo complesso e di fornire una protezione migliore qualora si verificasse una nuova recessione. Tuttavia, puA? causare anche conseguenze negative, ad esempio innescando uno shock sistemico generalizzato. Come abbiamo argomentato in altra sede, l potrebbe essere anticiclico, determinando un aumento del costo di capitale e di debito per gli Stati piA? deboli e i mutuatari con redditi piA? bassi. Inoltre, comporterebbe un costo immediato per gli investitori italiani al dettaglio, che rappresentano il 50% circa dei detentori di obbligazioni subordinate.

Navigazione a vista: una possibilitA� alternativa consiste nel navigare a vista, risolvendo i problemi degli istituti di credito piA? deboli quando si presentano e usando gli utili per ridurre il valore delle esposizioni nel tempo. Questo approccio mitiga il rischio piumini moncler uomo di uno shock sistemico, non impone perdite immediate agli investitori e i contribuenti non devono fornire alcun sussidio. Tuttavia, i crediti in sofferenza permangono su livelli elevati all del sistema, limitando la capacitA� di concedere prestiti e la futura flessibilitA� in caso di recessione. CiA? premesso, finora la ricapitalizzazione delle banche non ha dato grandi prove di saper incentivare la concessione del credito, soprattutto ai soggetti che ne avrebbero maggiormente bisogno.

Ricapitalizzazione mediante finanziamenti a basso costo: un possibilitA�, che tuttavia A? diventata molto piA? difficile da praticare dopo l in vigore della direttiva Brrd, consiste nel rimuovere i prestiti in sofferenza dai bilanci delle banche utilizzando finanziamenti a basso costo. Come nel caso del bail in, questo approccio ha il vantaggio di ripulire celermente il sistema e di agevolare la futura concessione del credito, outlet moncler anche se il costo A? potenzialmente sostenuto dai contribuenti e non dagli investitori. Malgrado sembri poco auspicabile, a nostro avviso una soluzione del genere potrebbe dimostrarsi vantaggiosa proprio per i contribuenti. Considerando il basso costo dei finanziamenti, se il governo dovesse acquistare prestiti in sofferenza garantiti, un contribuente potrebbe conseguire un rendimento superiore alla doppia cifra su determinati prestiti garantiti acquistati al valore contabile corrente.

L di Anderson A? suggestiva. Lo Stato, che si finanzia al tasso del Btp decennale (1% o poco piA?), compra il 60% di pacchetti di sofferenzegarantiti a valore di bilancio (cioA? grosso modo a metA� prezzo poichA� in meda le banche hanno giA� svalutato per metA� se non oltre i non performing loans). In questo modo non solo lo Stato incasserebbe le cedole dei bond delle cartolarizzazioni (10 15% annuo) ma soprattutto contribuirebbe a farneaumentare il prezzo di mercato da 10 a 20 punti percentuali rispetto al loro valore nominale(cioA? acquistare le cartolarizzazioni di Mps si potrebbero vendere al 50% circa anzichA� al 33% come nell di recente prospettata). Non sarebbe troppo dissimile da un investimento che lo Stato potrebbe fare in altri attivi, siano essi fondi infrastrutturali o societA� private: uno dei vantaggi principali A? dato dal fatto che a beneficiare di un ripresa dell sarebbero i contribuentie non gli investitori privatie di conseguenza, potremmo considerare questo approccio come una forma d da parte del governo piuttosto che un aiuto di Stato, conclude l manager di Pimco. Solo per dare un dello sforzo necessario, possiamo immaginare che su circa 200 miliardi di esposizioni nette, si spunti per i bond cartolarizzati un prezzo medio al 40% del nominale, cioA? 80 miliardi circa con un intervento del Tesoro di circa 50 miliardi, cioA? una Finanziaria e mezzo.

L A? proprio suggestiva. Pimco, che A? leader dell sta un po tirando acqua al proprio mulino invocando la garanzia dello Stato per partecipare all di sistema. Tutto legittimo, per caritA�, ma di difficile attuazione. Basti pensare che l nei fondi infrastrutturali non A? scomputato nA� dal deficit nA� dal debito pubblico in sede europea. Oltretutto, l pubblico farebbe scattare in automatico il bail in. E comunque questa storia ve l raccontata in due diverse occasioni: sia dal punto di vista della gestione del debito pubblico sia da quello delle sofferenze bancarie, che sono strettamente correlati in Italia perchA� le banche piumini moncler comprano Btp. In entrambi i casi Angela Merkel ci ha fatto marameo. Quindi, per realizzare la proposta di Pimco o l esce dall (euro incluso) andando in terra incognita oppure si dota di una vergine di Norimberga per indurre la Cancelliera a piA? miti consigli. Tuttavia concludiamo con l di Anderson (che tuttavia ritiene molto piA? probabile il bail in) mentre assistiamo all naufragio delle banche in Borsa: Il sistema dovrebbe progressivamente operare una distinzione tra bail in, che addossa le perdite agli investitori, e soluzioni finanziate che potrebbero essere vantaggiose per i contribuenti nel lungo termine.

Massimo Restelli Nato a Milano nel 1973, seguo la grande finanza italiana dal 1997. Mi piace la musica sinfonica, la fotografia e camminare in montagna.

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